Roanoke, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

321
FXUS61 KRNK 141709
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
Issued by National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1255 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening mid and upper level low pressure system across the
Ohio Valley will weaken further and drift northeast into the
mid-Atlantic today. Showers/storms will again be possible,
mainly for the Piedmont areas, with a marginal risk for severe
storms. The storm system will shift away from our region on
Thursday. A cold front will move through our area on Saturday
and should shift southeast of the area on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1255 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Numerous showers and storms may produce an isolated flooding
threat through sunset, along with a few strong cells, mainly SE.

The negatively tilted mid level shortwave trough is now pivoting NE
through the forecast area, amidst above normal PW and marginal
SBCAPE, although the CAPE growth has been slowed by this morning`s
extensive fog/stratus and now by numerous showers and isolated
storms. One strong to severe cell is tracking NE along the CAPE
gradient over our SE, and additional upscale growth is possible
within the developing spiral convective bands to its WSW, although
the effective bulk shear will remain marginal through the afternoon.
Will maintain high pops through sunset, with the elevated moisture,
slow storm motion, wet ground (NASA SPoRT 0-10 cm soil moisture in
the 90th percentile) and dynamic contribution to lift helping to
fuel the threat of localized flooding, which prompted the flood
watch in effect for N and central sections, mainly the eastern
higher terrain, through mid evening, locations that have received
broadly 2-5" of rain in the last 48 hours, with some road closures
and other impacts already. As the trough lifts to our NE this
evening with gradually rising heights and waning (but still near or
just above normal) PW, shower chances should decrease from SW to NE
this evening through tonight, although we may see redevelopment of
scattered showers over our far W toward morning as elevated moist
isentropic upglide at 300K-310K spreads in from the WSW late. We
should also see areas of fog develop overnight as the mid-upper
level clouds move out with a wet ground and light surface winds.
Lows should be in the 50s to lower 60s. -gih

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Not as unsettled as previous days although a couple of
features could produce some widely scattered showers and a few
storms Thursday morning, during Thursday afternoon/evening and again
late Thursday night.

2) There is a Marginal Risk of severe convection Thursday afternoon
and evening, especially across the Blue Ridge and into the Foothills
and Piedmont.

The persistent and slow moving mid and upper level low that has
produced the unsettled weather over the previous few days will have
opened up into a trough that extends from the Great Lakes southeast
into the mid-Atlantic on Thursday morning. This feature will slowly
lift northeast into New England during the day Thursday, in its wake
a somewhat robust northwest flow aloft will become more westerly
Thursday night as some flat mid level ridging moves across the
region. A baggy surface pattern will be in place on Thursday morning
with a weak surface trough extending southeast from the Great Lakes
into the DelMarVa region. This boundary will shift north as a pseudo-
warm front with increasing thickness values and a warmer air mass
moving into the region.

In terms of sensible weather, Thursday morning will start out with a
fair amount of cloudiness, especially near the Blue Ridge,
Shenandoah Valley, and Piedmont. As a better defined southerly to
southwesterly flow develops, expect a bit more sunshine to develop
than previous days. Surface heating combined with dew points in the
lower to mid 60s and PW values of about 125% of normal will support
the development of widely scattered to scattered showers and storms.
A modest short wave trough riding atop the ridge could initiate a
few showers/storms that move northeast across the area during the
morning. After a lull, additional scattered convection should
develop with the aid of heating during the afternoon, favored from
the Roanoke area north and east. A few of these storm could be
strong to severe given the strong mid level flow and resultant 0-6km
shear of 25 to 35 kts during the afternoon that could support some
storm organization. The convection should shift northeast of the
area during the evening followed by another lull for much of the
overnight before decaying convection across the OH and TN Valleys
moves into the RNK CWA with a few light showers very late Thursday
night. Highs on Thursday should range between 80 and 85 east of Blue
Ridge with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 in the higher terrain.
Lows Thursday night will generally range from the mid 50s to lower
60s. -Blaes

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Chance of scattered, mainly afternoon and evening, showers and
storms on Friday and Saturday. Rain chances decrease for Sunday
and Monday and increase a touch for Tuesday.

2) Much warmer for Friday and Saturday and then cooling a bit on
Sunday and into early next week.

Flat mid and upper level ridging across the area on Friday morning
will give way to a strengthening southwesterly flow for Friday into
Saturday supporting increasing thickness values, warmer temperatures
and increasing deep layer moisture with PW values increasing to 125
to 150% of normal for Friday and Saturday. A cold front associated
with a progressive mid-level cyclone that moves across the upper
Midwest on Friday and into the Great Lakes will approach the area on
Friday and move into the region on Saturday supporting scattered,
mainly afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms. A few
storms on Saturday could be strong. Highs on Friday and Saturday
will range well into the 80s with perhaps a few upper 70s in the
higher elevations, Saturday`s highs could be dampened a bit by more
clouds and some precipitation.

The cold front is forecast to push through the area on Sunday and
remain across GA and SC into early next week supporting a decrease
in precipitation chances, more sunshine and cooler temperatures,
Highs on Sunday and Monday will range in the mid 70s to lower 80s
with highs moderating into the upper 70s to mid 80s on Tuesday.
-Blaes

&&

.AVIATION /12z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 745 AM EDT Wednesday...

LIFR conditions are across most terminals this morning, as a
combination of dense fog and low cigs continue to linger in the
area. MVFR conditions are currently at ROA/LWB. As mixing begins
this morning, the fog is expected to burn off around 15z, which will
raise flight conditions to MVFR at all terminals. Due to the upper
low continuing to remain in the area, showers will continue through
the morning and spread east into the piedmont this afternoon. With
the aid of daytime heating, storms will be possible after 18z,
possibly some even being severe, particularly for DAN/LYH. Aside
from where the convection will be, VFR conditions return this
evening and into Wednesday night as the rain dissipated post-sunset.
Late tonight, fog again begins to form across the area, lowering
flight conditions back to MVFR/IFR conditions, aside from BLF/ROA
which will remain VFR through the end of the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Beginning Thursday morning, rain chances remain lower through
midday Saturday, though showers/storms will be possible each day
due to daytime heating. Any impact from a storm would lower
flight conditions temporarily, but generally VFR conditions will
be expected at all terminals. By Saturday, a cold front moves
into the area, with the best rain chances expected along/west of
the Blue Ridge. The front moves through by Sunday, with quieter
conditions expected across the area.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 945 AM EDT Monday...

The National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in
Blacksburg, VA is continuing to conduct a required, scheduled
update to their Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System
(AWIPS) that began Tuesday, May 13, 2025, lasting through
approximately Thursday, May 15, 2025.

During the time of the update, forecast operations will be
conducted by our service back-up office in Raleigh, NC to
minimize any potential interruption to services. No impacts to
our core services of forecast products and weather watches,
warnings and advisories are expected during this period.

However, limited impacts will occur to the following services:

NOAA Weather Transmitters: All NOAA Weather Radio Transmitters
maintained by NWS Blacksburg will be off the air through the
time of the update.

This includes the following transmitters in North Carolina,
Virginia, and West Virginia:

Mount Jefferson (WNG88  162.500 MHz)
Richlands (WZ2543  162.425 MHz)
Wytheville (WZ2500  162.450 MHz)
Roanoke (WXL60  162.475 MHz)
Lynchburg (WXL92  162.550 MHz)
South Boston (KJY86  162.525 MHz)
Hinton (WXM72  162.425 MHz)

Water Level Forecasts: Water level forecast services will be
degraded due to a less frequent update cycle. Forecasts will
remain on https:/water.noaa.gov/wfo/rnk through this period.

Local graphical forecast maps that are hosted in numerous places
on www.weather.gov/rnk will not be updated.

This includes all maps on the Graphical Hazardous Weather
Outlook page (https:/www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=rnk), the
majority of the graphics on the Briefing page
(https:/www.weather.gov/rnk/emer), some experimental fire
applications (https:/www.weather.gov/rnk/fire), climate graphs
for Blacksburg Forecast Area
(https:/www.weather.gov/rnk/climatePlots), and the Weather
Story (https:/www.weather.gov/rnk/weatherstory).

The forecast office in Blacksburg, VA will remain open and
staffed through the period for public and partner phone calls
and additional functions that can be completed without AWIPS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ011-014-
     017>020-022>024-032>035.
NC...None.
WV...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ043-044-507-
     508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JCB
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Blaes
LONG TERM... Blaes
AVIATION...JCB
EQUIPMENT...AMS/JCB