Roanoke, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

255
FXUS61 KRNK 070047
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
747 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Evening aviation update below.

Edited climate section to reflect today`s record high
temperatures.

No notable changes made to the previous forecast, which remains
on track.

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Multiple chances of rain and thunderstorms for the
weekend and towards the end of next week.

2) Above normal temperatures continue. Record or near record
highs and lows are possible or occurring; please see the
Climate section below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message #1: Multiple chances of rain and thunderstorms for
the weekend and towards the end of next week.

Tomorrow will have a better opportunity for widespread rain
thanks to a passing cold front. Good news at least is that with
these very warm temperatures and continual warm air advection,
we know this precipitation will be just rain. With the warm and
relatively moist conditions, many of these showers will be
convective based and will develop into thunderstorms. Lapse
rates of 6.5 C/km and CAPE between 500-1500 J/kg certainty
promotes an unstable atmosphere, but wind shear is painfully
lacking. The best wind shear will be towards the northwest in
the WV counties, but even then wind shear values will only be
around 25-35 kts. Nevertheless, a Marginal Risk of Severe
Weather from the SPC has been issued along and west of the Blue
Ridge due to the hazard of rogue severe wind gusts from these
storms. While the main line of storms will likely move through
late Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning, some models suggest
a small cluster of storms forming around the NRV ahead of the
front Saturday afternoon. While some of these storms may have
moderate to heavy rain, flooding is not a concern given the
continual drought conditions.

There is another chance of thunderstorms next week, but the
forecast quality degrades thanks to a mid-level cutoff low
above Baja California. The Baja Low will remain in the deep
southwest for the first half of next week but will likely
propagate eastward as the week progresses. How fast and how far
east this system goes is uncertain. This puts a stain in the
forecast as models are and have been showing a coastal/surface
low develop and bring our region another chance of precipitation
towards the end of next week. The timing and impacts of the
surface low will be influenced by the mid- level cutoff low`s
behavior.


KEY MESSAGE# 2: Above normal temperatures continue. Record or
near record highs and lows are possible or occurring; please
see the Climate section below.

The southeastern United States and Mid Atlantic region will be
on the northern periphery of Bermuda ridging through Saturday.
By Sunday, a ribbon of short wave energy stretched across the
middle of the country, but anchored to a closed low in Baja, CA,
will begin to suppress ridging to our south. This will leave
the door open for a steady stream of short wave energy through
next week as the upper low ejects into TX. The Gulf of America
will remain wide open, with predominantly SW winds continuing to
funnel in moisture much of the week. This will result in
periods of cloud cover and rain showers/thunderstorms.

We will be mainly in the warm air associated with these systems
through Wednesday and again next week, with a cool front
arriving Sunday putting just a slight damper on the temperatures
This front will likely stall and stay nearby, knocking down
850mb temperatures from 13C Saturday to around 5-9C Sunday. In
general, building heights and periods of WAA advection will
support temperatures well above normal for early to midweek.
Cloud cover will also insulate us at night. As such, ensemble
members show little spread as far as temperatures through
Wednesday, but confidence drops off after that, as the timing
and location of the next weather features are in question.

There is a 60 to 80 percent chance for temperatures to warm
above 70F in most of the area Saturday. We remain warm into
next week, and a look at NAEFS situational awareness tables show
about a +2 to +3 standard deviation temperature-wise during this
time. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails is
almost maxed out in the maximum and minimum temperatures
categories through midweek next, further supporting the very
warm temperature in the forecast. Record or near record highs
and lows are possible or already occurring; please see the
Climate section below.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Area-wide VFR continues as clouds remain scattered. Clouds
increase overnight along/east of the Blue Ridge as a backdoor
cold front pushes into the area from the northeast. While no
precipitation is expected, the easterly flow will push up
against the Blue Ridge and cause broken to overcast skies and
cigs to lower after 07z to MVFR levels at all terminals except
BLF. ROA/LYH is expected to lower further to IFR/LIFR levels,
respectively, with lowest cigs between 11-14z. Some patchy fog
is expected overnight, but it is not expected to be dense. The
low cigs last for much of Saturday morning, before finally
lifting closer to noon as the front lifts back north of the
area, returning all terminals to VFR.

Daytime heating tomorrow afternoon, along with an approaching
front will cause showers and storms to form. Scattered storms
will be possible throughout the rest of the TAF period after 18z
at all terminals. Storms could potentially have isolated
damaging winds, particularly west of the Blue Ridge. Any
showers or storms will bring temporary sub-VFR conditions.

Winds will shift more to the east overnight tonight but shift
back to the SSW tomorrow. Gusts could reach over 20 knots at
times for each terminal during the afternoon, with higher gusts
possible in any thunderstorms.

Confidence in the above forecast is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Sub-VFR conditions continue due to showers and possibly some
thunderstorms Saturday night and lingering into Sunday
afternoon with a cold frontal passage. The best chance for
thunder on Sunday will be at DAN and LYH in the afternoon.
Expect light SW winds until the frontal passage Sunday, then
light WNW winds prevail. A slight chance of showers remain
possible Monday afternoon, though confidence is low. Additional
chances for sub-VFR as rain arrives Tuesday afternoon and again
Wednesday. Nightly chances for fog will also be expected, as
warm, humid air surges into the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Data are considered preliminary.

Friday 03/06/2026

All five climate sites broke their record highs for today. BLF
may set a new record high minimum temperature.

Friday 03/06/2026
Site  MaxT Year   HiMin Year  ActualMax
KBLF    74   1956  55   1961    75  *New Record*
KDAN    82   1976  61   1961    84  *New Record*
KLYH    80   1956  58   2022    83  *New Record*
KROA    80*  1956  59   1961    84  *New Record*
KRNK    76   1976  55   1946    79  *New Record*

Saturday 03/07/2026
Site  MaxT Year  HiMin Year  MaxForecast  MinForecast
KBLF    75   1921  56   1961    73        57
KDAN    82   1961  56   1961    79        59
KLYH    81   2022  58   1956    77        56
KROA    83   2009  62   1956    79        58
KRNK    75   1921  48   2024    75        56

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG/SH
AVIATION...JCB/SH
CLIMATE...JCB/SH